1-羟基苯并三氮唑和钼酸钠对铜的缓蚀协同作用

采用电化学、扫描电子显微镜、X射线光电子能谱等实验方法研究了1-羟基苯并三氮唑(BTAOH)和钼酸钠(Na2Mo O4)复配后对铜在ASTM D 1384模拟大气腐蚀溶液中的缓蚀协同作用.电化学实验结果表明:BTAOH与Na2Mo O4在50 mg·L-1的质量浓度条件下,以2∶1复配使用能够显著提高铜在模拟大气腐蚀溶液中的电荷转移电阻,降低腐蚀电流密度,缓蚀率达到90.7%;铜在模拟大气腐蚀溶液中的腐蚀产物呈聚集柱状堆砌在表面,而在含有缓蚀剂的溶液中表面平整致密,且疏水性增强,接触角显著增大至91.8°.X射线光电子能谱结果显示Na2Mo O4与铜表面作用后形成Mo O3和Mo O2,两种氧化物填充在BTAOH形成的表面膜的缝隙中,提高了膜的致密性,对铜产生良好的保护作用.     

湿帘降温系统在陕西某温室的降温特性

为了研究陕西地区现代农业温室的降温特性,通过测试陕西省富平一栋采用湿帘-风机降温系统的温室室内温度、湿度,研究其湿帘降温效果、系统特性、温室的温度空间分布等．通过理论计算与实际测试对比,分析了循环水温对湿帘蒸发冷却效率的影响,验证了高温、低湿气候条件下湿帘-风机这一降温系统的实际降温效果．试验结果表明,温室1m高处平均降温6.7℃,最高降温9.2℃,湿帘蒸发冷却效率高达90.3％,当低于空气湿球温度的循环水时,能够提高湿帘的蒸发冷却效率．     

财政分权与基本公共服务供给——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

采用2007~2011年中国省级面板数据,运用固定效应模型,分析了财政分权对我国基本公共服务供给的影响,并通过控制变量的引入,揭示可能影响地方政府公共服务供给的因素.结果表明:财政分权并没有提高公共服务供给水平;经济发展水平、财政转移支付、政府偏好和财政支出水平对基本公共服务供给水平有正向影响,而人口密度对基本公共服务供给水平产生负影响     

中国和美国信贷冲击跨境溢出效应的比较研究

本文构建了基于符号约束识别的GVAR模型,并用以考察中国和美国的信贷市场冲击对全球41个国家的不同溢出效应.研究结果表明,中国紧缩性信贷市场冲击对本国实体经济有显著的负效应,但仅限于短中期;而美国信贷冲击对本国乃至全球经济都具有相当大且持久的负影响.中国信贷冲击的跨国效应较小,且主要通过贸易渠道.中国信贷市场的本国冲击能解释中国产出近10%的波动,但无论是本国效应还是跨境传导,总需求冲击仍是驱动中国经济周期波动的最主要力量.     

大型体育赛事与阳光体育运动互动机制探讨——以环海南岛国际公路自行车赛为例

文章从分析阳光体育运动对象的特点入手,结合大型体育赛事对人们心理、行动及消费习惯等的影响,以环海南国际公路自行车赛为例,探究有关大型运动赛事与阳光体育运动的互动机制,为实现阳光体育运动的健康发展提供思路.     

A Flexible Functional Form Approach To Mortality Modeling: Do We Need Additional Cohort Dummies?

The increasing amount of attention paid to longevity risk and funding for old age has created the need for precise mortality models and accurate future mortality forecasts. Orthogonal polynomials have been widely used in technical fields and there have also been applications in mortality modeling. In this paper we adopt a flexible functional form approach using two‐dimensional Legendre orthogonal polynomials to fit and forecast mortality rates. Unlike some of the existing mortality models in the literature, the model we propose does not impose any restrictions on the age, time or cohort structure of the data and thus allows for different model designs for different countries' mortality experience. We conduct an empirical study using male mortality data from a range of developed countries and explore the possibility of using age–time effects to capture cohort effects in the underlying mortality data. It is found that, for some countries, cohort dummies still need to be incorporated into the model. Moreover, when comparing the proposed model with well‐known mortality models in the literature, we find that our model provides comparable fitting but with a much smaller number of parameters. Based on 5‐year‐ahead mortality forecasts, it can be concluded that the proposed model improves the overall accuracy of the future mortality projection. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

重症患者大便失禁肛周皮肤护理干预新技术与临床效果

通过观察对重症患者大便失禁肛周皮肤护理干预新技术应用的临床效果,采用对照组1用常规护理技术,给患者垫尿不湿和棉垫,然后随时进行大便清理,更换衣被和棉垫,对肛周进行擦拭清洁等。对照组2用单一使用卫生棉条或气囊气管导管护理技术;观察组针对不同的大便失禁患者,选用适应不同患者类型的重症患者大便失禁肛周皮肤护理流程和护理干预新技术;结果表明:观察组患者的肛周皮肤损伤发生率为2.78%,明显低于对照组1和对照组2,差异有统计学意义(P0.01,χ2=15.23);根据不同的大便失禁患者类型,选择不同的肛周皮肤护理流程和不同的护理干预新技术,有利于肛周皮肤损伤发生率和护理成本的降低,值得在临床护理工作中加以推广应用。     

Forecasting with Micro Panels: The Case of Health Care Costs

Micro panels characterized by large numbers of individuals observed over a short time period provide a rich source of information, but as yet there is only limited experience in using such data for forecasting. Existing simulation evidence supports the use of a fixed‐effects approach when forecasting but it is not based on a truly micro panel set‐up. In this study, we exploit the linkage of a representative survey of more than 250,000 Australians aged 45 and over to 4 years of hospital, medical and pharmaceutical records. The availability of panel health cost data allows the use of predictors based on fixed‐effects estimates designed to guard against possible omitted variable biases associated with unobservable individual specific effects. We demonstrate the preference towards fixed‐effects‐based predictors is unlikely to hold in many practical situations, including our models of health care costs. Simulation evidence with a micro panel set‐up adds support and additional insights to the results obtained in the application. These results are supportive of the use of the ordinary least squares predictor in a wide range of circumstances. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multicategory Purchase Incidence Models for Partitions of Product Categories

We analyze multicategory purchases of households by means of heterogeneous multivariate probit models that relate to partitions formed from a total of 25 product categories. We investigate both prior and post hoc partitions. We search model structures by a stochastic algorithm and estimate models by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The best model in terms of cross‐validated log‐likelihood refers to a post hoc partition with two groups; the second‐best model considers all categories as one group. Among prior partitions with at least two category groups a five‐group model performs best. Effects on average basket value differ for the model with five prior category groups from those for the best‐performing model in 40% and 24% of the investigated categories for features and displays, respectively. In addition, the model with five prior category groups also underestimates total sales revenue across all categories by about 28%. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

农村工业结构时空演进及其环境污染效应评价——基于行业污染程度视角

从行业污染程度的视角对农村工业进行分类,分析农村工业结构变动的时空分异特征,探讨农村工业结构变动对环境影响的机理,构建环境影响指数,定量评价农村工业结构演进的环境污染效应.主要结论如下:①1988-2010年间农村工业轻度污染行业所占比重呈现增加的趋势,而污染行业呈现下降的趋势.研究期内环境影响指数呈现"增长-下降-增长"的变化趋势,2002年以后又逐步呈现增加的趋势.②农村工业结构区域分异特征明显,在省级层面,江苏、山东、浙江、山西、河北、河南、广东、辽宁、上海等省市重污染行业和中度污染占全国重污染行业的比重较多,环境影响指数也都较大.在区域层面上,污染行业也主要集中在东部发达地区,东部地区环境影响指数远远大于中部和西部地区.在环境管理实践中不同的地区应实行差别化的管理政策.